From Candidate to Defense Minister & more – 7th Dec 2023

¡Buenos días from Greenway Parks! This is the Rorshok Argentina Update from the 7th of December twenty twenty-three A quick summary of what's going down in Argentina.

It’s been a slow week for the most part, as everyone’s waiting for the transition and to see the official, final names that will make up the new Cabinet. The most recent confirmation is that of Luis Petri, who will serve as Defense Minister in the upcoming administration. If the name sounds familiar, that’s because Petri was Patricia Bullrich’s running mate just a few weeks ago. Just like her, he’s known for his tough stance on security and has worked on legislation addressing serious crimes and narco-trafficking.

Petri also has a history of legislative involvement, including rejecting bills on voluntary termination of pregnancy and advocating for stricter penalties. Regarding his new position as Defense Minister, he pledges to revalue the role of the Armed Forces and emphasize their crucial contribution to the nation’s sovereignty.

A more controversial appointment, however, is that of Rodolfo Barra. President-elect Javier Milei has chosen him for a key legal position in his government, even though he’s known for having been involved with a pro-Nazi youth movement in the nineteen fifties and nineteen sixties. Despite Barra’s apologies and assertions that his past actions were those of an immature teenager, the news has sparked outrage from Jewish organizations and opposition figures. Civic groups like the Argentine Forum Against Anti-Semitism are calling for reconsideration.

Milei also announced his picks for the leadership of Congress, selecting Martín Menem for the Chamber of Deputies and Francisco Paoltroni for the Senate. Yes, Martín Menem is the nephew of former Argentine president Carlos Menem, who was known for implementing a series of economic reforms in the 90s, including the Convertibility Plan to control hyperinflation and an aggressive privatization program. While initially successful in stabilizing the economy and attracting foreign investment, the subsequent economic issues in the early two thousands raised questions about the effectiveness of his economic approach.

Speaking of the president-elect, a new buzzword has been going around: stagflation. As soon as he takes office, Milei will have to tackle inflation, as well as unwinding currency controls and price freezes imposed by the previous government. Therefore, he acknowledges the inevitability of stagflation—a period marked by both stagnant economic growth and soaring inflation.

In other words, the country will experience a hard period resulting from the fiscal adjustments, which are needed to organize the economy and stabilize the nation’s financial outlook.

On that note, citizens and economists alike are making their bets on what will be the official exchange rate once the new administration takes office. The incoming Interior Minister Guillermo Francos has suggested a potential official exchange rate of 600 to 650 pesos per dollar, emphasizing the need for a “reasonable” value reflecting the country’s economic circumstances.

This hint at a significant devaluation from the current rate of 370 pesos per dollar has stirred debate among economists and experts. Some finance specialists see this range as appropriate for optimizing trade balance and improving international reserves, even though it might bring about inflationary pressure. Others warn that a dollar at 650 pesos could raise the cost of imported inputs and escalate inflationary tension.

Another aspect that’s under scrutiny is the severance pay law. The upcoming labor team is looking into a light labor reform, focusing on two aspects. First, the extension of the severance pay model from the construction sector to other areas. The construction workers guild established an unemployment fund where the employer deposits twelve percent of the employee’s monthly salary into a bank account during the first year of employment, and eight percent every month after that. If the worker is dismissed, these contributions act as part of severance payments.

The second part of the reform has to do with reducing fines for irregular hiring, which has reportedly received positive feedback in discussions with union leaders.

If you want to read more about the changes that may be coming, the news outlet Foreign Affairs published a piece titled How Javier Milei Could Change Argentina, which examines his promises of radical reforms to address the country’s economic issues. The article highlights Milei’s unorthodox style, including controversial statements, and explores the need for him to build political support, diplomacy, and navigate alliances for successful governance.

To check out the piece, follow the link in the show notes.

Since we mentioned diplomacy, Nicaragua has recalled its ambassador to Argentina, citing Milei’s repeated critical statements against Daniel Ortega’s government. The president-elect has expressed his reluctance to foster relations with communist nations, naming Cuba, Venezuela, North Korea, Nicaragua, and China. The Nicaraguan Foreign Minister announced the decision, stating that it was due to the new rulers’ comments and how he excluded Ortega from invitations to the inauguration.

Another article discusses Milei’s proposal to withdraw from the South American common market, Mercosur. Published by the news outlet The Conversation, the piece draws parallels with the UK’s exit from the EU, and explores the potential economic and social consequences of Argentina’s withdrawal from Mercosur. Link in the show notes!

From the EU to the UN, the United Nations Committee on the Elimination of Discrimination against Women praised Argentina’s government for offering comprehensive reparation to Olga del Rosario Díaz, a sixty-seven-year-old mother of three who suffered gender-based violence from her former partner. The UN body commends the satisfactory implementation of an amicable agreement by the Argentine state, emphasizing efforts to provide reparations and establish measures against gender-based violence.

Moving on, we’re only a couple of weeks away from the start of Summer, and if you’re planning on spending part of the season in the coastal city of Mar del Plata in the Buenos Aires Porvince, you may want to know that smoking cigarettes at the beach is now prohibited, for the most part. Starting this month, smokers will have to follow the signage indicating smoke-free zones and a few designated smoking areas with cigarette disposal bins. The goal is to prevent pollution, as a single cigarette butt can contaminate 500 liters of water.

Now, here’s another update on the upcoming season. The National Meteorological Service gave us a sneak peek into what to expect this summer, and it looks like we’re in for a weather rollercoaster. The report suggests that December twenty twenty-three, and January, and February twenty twenty-four will be under the influence of El Niño, bringing more rain than usual to certain parts of the country, especially in the central-east and northeast regions. Good news for Buenos Aires – you won’t need to endure scorching heat, thanks to cooler ocean temperatures and the promise of more rain. However, up in the far north and northwest, there will be seriously high temperatures, possibly leading to heatwaves. If you’re in the western regions, get ready for a drier and hotter summer than usual.

Speaking of hot, Spotify gave us the lowdown on Argentina’s hottest musical trends of twenty twenty-three. The streaming service just dropped its annual Wrapped. So, who’s been rocking our playlists? The cumbia band Ke Personajes snagged the Most-Listened Artist crown. Maria Becerra and Duki were close behind, securing their spots in the top five. Meanwhile, the latest album of singer Tini, Cupido or Cupid, stole the show as Argentina’s Most-Listened Album, proving that the pop-cumbia-electronic fusion may have been the sound of the year.

Moving on to the film industry, the independent film Trenque Lauquen, directed by Laura Citarella, clinched the top spot for the best film of twenty twenty-three in the Cahiers du Cinéma, the highly-esteemed French cinema publication. This marks the first time in sixty-nine years that a Latin American film has claimed the number one spot on the magazine’s annual top-10. Divided into two parts, the five-hour epic takes viewers on a journey through a Borges-like labyrinth, blending historical puzzles, detective stories, and sci-fi elements.

But of course, it wouldn’t be a complete episode if we didn’t have news from Lionel Messi. Time magazine named the football star “Athlete of the Year,” a great way to cap off a groundbreaking season marked by his eighth Ballon d'Or win and a historic move to Major League Soccer’s Inter Miami, which achieved the seemingly impossible—turning soccer into a topic of conversation in the US.

Aaaand that’s it for this week. Do you ever wonder who these Rorshok people are and why they care about what is going on in Argentina? If so, head over to our website to find out more about us and the other things that we do! You can read all about the organization, other projects we are carrying out, and the other podcasts we do. If something catches your eye, or you have any questions, please reach out. You can find all the contact information and the website link in the show notes.

¡Nos vemos la próxima semana!