ARGENTINA: October’s Inflation & more – 14th Nov 2024

¡Buenos días from Greenway Parks! This is the Rorshok Argentina Update from the 14th of November twenty twenty-four. A quick summary of what's going down in Argentina.

October saw a significant drop in inflation, which slowed to 2.7%, marking the lowest monthly rate since November twenty twenty-one. Even though consumer prices have risen by over 100% so far in twenty twenty-four and almost by 200% since October twenty twenty-three, President Milei’s administration views this as progress in curbing inflation. For November, experts predict inflation rates will be between 2.8% and 3.2%, with a slight rebound in December.

While inflation is dropping, critics point out that reduced consumption and a 3.5% expected economic contraction have deepened the country’s recession.

Meanwhile, a recent study by the University of Buenos Aires shows that poverty has increased rapidly, leaving over six million people unable to meet basic nutritional needs in twenty twenty-four. This marks a stark increase from the previous year, with those struggling to eat four daily meals growing by 130%. While poverty rates often rise and fall with economic cycles, experts fear that the current conditions might create a lasting floor of structural poverty that is hard to overcome.

The good news is Argentine stocks and bonds surged by 10%, likely due to Donald Trump’s US presidential win. That said, analysts are uncertain about how Trump’s policies may affect Argentina in the long term. Even though Milei and Trump share some ideological ground, their economic policies differ significantly, especially as Trump’s approach involves tariffs and market interventions, which contrast with Milei’s libertarian stance.

There’s hope that a Republican-led US government could support Argentina’s International Monetary Fund negotiations, but experts warn that Trump’s preference for protectionism and a strong dollar may complicate matters, potentially hurting Argentina by driving up US interest rates and impacting exports.

If you want to learn more about this topic, check out Reuters’ article in English with the link in the show notes.

Either way, on Tuesday the 12th, Trump had a warm phone conversation with Milei, reportedly calling him his “favorite president.” Milei is set to visit the US on Friday the 15th of November for an in-person meeting before Trump’s January inauguration.

After that trip, Milei is set for a busy period of international diplomacy. On the 17th of November, he will host Emmanuel Macron, the French President, as both prepare for the G20 Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, which will take place on the 18th and 19th. At the summit, Milei also aims to meet with other world leaders, including China’s Xi Jinping. Shortly after the G20, Giorgia Meloni, the Italian Prime Minister, will visit Buenos Aires, marking her fourth meeting with Milei as the two leaders look to strengthen Argentina-Italy ties.

Speaking of diplomacy, Argentina was the only country to vote against a UN draft resolution focused on the rights of indigenous peoples. The resolution aims to strengthen protections for indigenous communities, including their rights to justice, cultural preservation, and environmental protection. Argentina’s representative argued the draft was ambiguous, suggesting it could conflict with rights related to women, health, and scientific progress.

On that note, The New York Times published an in-depth piece titled Argentina’s Leader Takes Ax to Program That Drove Down Teen Pregnancy. The article explores the cuts to initiatives designed to reduce teen pregnancy by offering sex education, birth control in high-risk areas, and support for women’s rights.

To read the full piece, follow the link in the show notes!

If you’ve heard about the controversy surrounding a sex education book but aren’t sure of the details, here’s the deal: Alberto Sileoni, the Director of Education in Buenos Aires, is facing legal action for allegedly allowing the distribution of educational books with explicit sexual content in schools. The Natalio Morelli Foundation filed the complaint, saying that the material for students aged twelve to fifteen contains graphic passages that go far beyond what’s considered appropriate for sex education.

In response, Sileoni defended the books, saying they are resources for teachers, not required reading for students. He also clarified that whenever a book covers scenes of sex or explicit language, authorities set them aside for students between sixteen and nineteen years old, and add a label that says it requires teacher guidance. He also pointed out that kids today have easy access to much more graphic content online.

In other news, Milei gave a speech at the headquarters of Ualá, the Argentine fintech company, where he declared that the country is heading into its best period in a century despite economic hardships like reduced wages.

Ualá recently secured 300 million dollars in a new funding round, boosting its valuation to $2.75 billion, and making it one of Latin America’s most valuable startups.

From fintech to aviation, the government has announced major changes affecting the flagship carrier Aerolíneas Argentinas, and airport ramp handling services. The president warned that the airline could lose all state funding or even face shutdown if negotiations with its pilots do not yield reforms. Meanwhile, Intercargo, the state-controlled ramp service provider with a history of strikes and operational issues, will be replaced. Airport Security Police is taking over operations until a new provider steps in.

On a similar topic, the government has opened up the country’s postal sector to private competition, ending the exclusivity that Correo Argentino had over services like official notifications, recorded mail, and packages under fifty kilograms. The decree also allows these services to be sent digitally with virtual identity verification, aiming to reduce bureaucracy and improve service quality through increased competition. Companies can now register as mail providers online and start operations within five days.

There have been updates on the Liam Payne case. The police arrested three individuals in connection with the British singer’s death: a close acquaintance, a hotel employee, and a suspected drug dealer. They face charges of neglect and narcotics distribution, with potential sentences of five to fifteen years. Toxicology reports showed Payne had consumed alcohol, cocaine, and an antidepressant before his death.

Braian Paiz, the suspected drug dealer, is a young waiter who says he met Payne at a restaurant two weeks before his death. In a TV interview, he stated they had an intimate encounter at Payne’s hotel on the 13th of October, but insisted he did not supply the drugs.

Other artists have made the headlines this week, including Dillom, the Argentine rapper. You may have seen a million memes online inspired by his confrontation with an influencer on a plane. While on a flight, a pro-Milei influencer known online as La Pistarini posted a photo of Dillom on Twitter with an insult. Dillom eventually tracked him down in his seat, and recorded the tense encounter. The influencer stayed quiet during the confrontation, which quickly spread on social media and even reached mainstream news. Critics of Milei interpret this as an example of some supporters’ online bravado falling short in real-life situations.

For those into urban music, Duki, the Argentine trap star, has just dropped his new album and revealed plans for a massive tour in twenty twenty-five. Within its first twenty-four hours, Ameri set a record as the most-played Argentine album, with more than thirteen million streams. The Ameri World Tour will bring him to over a dozen countries, including the US, the UK, Italy, and Mexico. Tickets go on presale on the 7th of December, with general sales starting the next day.

Also, another Argentine icon got the recognition it deserves: The Spanish Royal Academy has officially added the term che to its latest dictionary, recognizing its role in River Plate Spanish as an iconic and friendly way to address someone informally. Other local words like pibe, meaning kid, have already been added.

Aaand that’s it for this week! Thank you for joining us!

Thanks for sticking around for this episode of the Rorshok Argentina update! If you’ve got questions, thoughts, or just want to say hi, reach out at info@rorshok.com. Don’t forget to hit subscribe on your favorite podcast app!

¡Nos vemos la próxima semana!