ARGENTINA: La Libertad Avanza’s Win & more – 30th Oct 2025

¡Buenos días from BA! This is the Rorshok Argentina Update from the 30th of October twenty twenty-five. A quick summary of what's going down in Argentina.

The biggest news this week: the highly-anticipated midterm congressional elections, held last Sunday, resulted in an unexpected landslide victory for President Javier Milei’s incumbent party, La Libertad Avanza, granting them thirteen seats in the Senate and sixty-four deputies in the Lower House.

After obtaining a bit over 40% of the votes, La Libertad Avanza and its close ally PRO will now hold 107 out of the 257 seats in the Chamber of Deputies, and twenty-four out of seventy-two in the Senate, making them the largest minority and handing them the numbers necessary to back Javier Milei’s plans and presidential vetoes.

By winning the province of Buenos Aires, a historically Peronist stronghold and a territory that had backed the coalition Fuerza Patria in recent local elections, Milei delivered his heaviest blow to the opposition—even if they were beaten by only one point.

And while speaking about the elections in Buenos Aires, the leftist party FIT managed to score three new seats in the Lower House after getting 9% of the vote in Ciudad de Buenos Aires and 5% in the province of Buenos Aires, which constitutes a historic triumph for the movement headed by Myriam Bregman and Nicolás del Caño.

Milei’s run-up to the elections had hardly been bump-free, as his campaign had been forced to deal with corruption cases that we covered in previous shows involving the President’s sister, Karina Milei, and deputy candidate for the Buenos Aires Province, José Luis Espert, among widespread discontent regarding his austerity policies. He had not been doing well in the polls. So what could possibly explain these results?

They might be the direct consequence of President Trump’s 40-billion-dollar bailout intended to stabilize the currency and give some air to Milei’s government. However, Trump and Scott Bessent, the US Secretary of Treasury, promised to grant the lifeline on the condition that Milei won on Sunday, which may have instilled fear in Argentine voters.

President Trump himself congratulated Milei on Monday, saying that the election had made a lot of money for the United States, explaining that the debt rating has gone up. Meanwhile, Scott Bessent spoke of rolling back the US’ intervention, since he believes that the market will now take care of itself and have a lot of confidence in Milei’s policies.

Several local political figures, like Peronist Buenos Aires governor Axel Kicillof, have been very outspoken about the current situation, remarking on the gravity of such foreign interference in Argentine elections and condemning all those involved.

Argentina’s peso started the week a whole 10% higher, and the country risk index plummeted by 40%, which goes to show that international markets did believe it was now safer to bet on Argentina. After a brief rebound on Tuesday the 28th, when the dollar ended the day close to the 1,500-peso ceiling, the outlook now remains positive, with Argentina’s bonds soaring in Wall Street and the dollar potentially stabilizing. Furthermore, Vladimir Werning, Vice President of Argentina's Central Bank, confirmed to foreign investors and stakeholders in Washington that the bank will resume buying reserves next year.

Peronists suffered another blow on Tuesday the 28th, when the Supreme Court of Justice upheld two convictions against Guillermo Moreno, the former Minister of Commerce, who is now effectively disqualified from holding public office.

During his victory speech on Sunday night, President Milei thanked the electorate for supporting his project and called for unity beyond party lines, asking legislators to put the country’s needs first in a rare conciliatory tone. In front of a roaring crowd of fans, he announced that his government had just passed a turning point and that this result marked the beginning of the “construction of a great Argentina.”

This win has strengthened the President’s government, and already he is pushing a major reform to labor laws. It would seem that his proposed changes would allow longer working hours, productivity-based pay, and a simplification of firing and hiring procedures.

Keen on not wasting any time, President Milei plans to meet with a group of governors to kick off talks about his reforms on Thursday the 30th. Chief of the Cabinet Guillermo Francos, Minister of Economy Luis Toto Caputo and Minister of Interior Lisandro Catalán will also be in attendance.

President Milei is also planning to meet with former President Mauricio Macri. After a brief congratulatory phone call on Monday the 27th, Milei seems ready to bridge the distance with his predecessor and smooth out some tensions between their blocs. These tensions come from PRO leader Cristian Ritiondo, who is rumored to be upset with the President of the Chamber of Deputies Martín Menem over Menem’s tendency to undervalue the former’s bloc power.

For her part, Patricia Bullrich, the Minister of National Security, now elected senator, spoke on Tuesday the 28th about the new criminal code she is championing, which seeks to put a stop to impunity, harden sentences and incorporate the anti-mafia law.

Speaking of Bullrich, As expected, now that the elections are behind us, it’s time for a major cabinet reshuffle. She will be leaving her post as Minister of National Security along with Luis Petri, who will no longer serve as Minister of Defense. Both of them visited Casa Rosada on Wednesday the 29th and allegedly suggested possible candidates to take up their duties. According to some sources, the decision has already been made, and an announcement is imminent, despite previous plans to keep the current line-up until the 10th of December.

Last Sunday, the 26th, President Milei also celebrated the successful implementation of the single paper ballot system that was used for the first time at a national level and across all districts. He said that this new system guarantees transparency in the procedures and strengthens democracy.

While there were no incidents nor there was any evidence of foul play, this ballot system was not without its pitfalls, as data shows null votes doubled as a result of voters not understanding how to cast their vote.

Despite the brand-new single ballot system sort of success, only 68% of the electorate casting their ballots, these elections saw the lowest voter turnout of the country since democracy was reinstated in eighteen eighty-three, and it most likely is due to a sentiment of general apathy and disillusionment.

You know who has not fallen prey to apathy? The queer folk of Buenos Aires, who will take to the streets next Saturday (the first of November, as tradition mandates) to celebrate the country’s 34th Pride. The organizing committee has decided on the slogan: In the face of hatred and violence, more pride and unity. The event is set to start at ten in the morning, to then culminate in the afternoon with a march in front of Congress.

Closing this edition with some football news, Racing Club tied with Flamengo 0-0 on Wednesday night and was left out of the Copa Libertadores after Flamengo’s previous 1-0 victory over the Argentine team. The Mengaos have advanced to the tournament’s finals, where they will face either fellow Brazilian Palmeiras or the Equatorians Liga de Quito on the 29th of November 29th. Sending love to the fans of La Academia.

Aaand that’s it for this week! Thank you for joining us!

Did you know that we talk about many places besides Argentina? We’ve got nine country updates! We also have three non-sovereign shows, about the Ocean, the Arctic and Multilateral organizations. Interested? Check out the link in the show notes. Got any feedback? You know how to contact us.

¡Nos vemos la próxima semana!